The number that produced the slowdown headlines was an export gain of roughly 24% year on year in July, down from about 27% in June. Customs also reported the trade surplus narrowing to $112.5 billion from $125.6 billion, with imports up 27.5% against a 36% jump the month before. Both prints came in ahead of what analysts expected. In almost any other year, a 24% export print would have been the story by itself rather than the evidence of decline.

U.S. container imports rose 8.2% year-over-year in June, according to supply chain technology provider Descartes Systems Group, as importers rushed goods into the country ahead of potential new tariffs and rising transportation costs linked to the war in Iran. U.S. seaports processed 2,400,627 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) during the month. The headline number looks like strength, but the first-half data tells a different story. For the first six months of 2026, imports were actually down 0.