The clearest price signal in the Iran war is not coming from crude. It is coming from box rates on a trade lane that runs nowhere near the Persian Gulf. Spot rates from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast now sit 276% above where they were at the end of February, before the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. East Coast rates are up 232% over the same window.

Container capacity on the two biggest East-West trade lanes has largely recovered from the disruption caused by the Iran war, yet spot rates are still running well above pre-crisis norms. That combination — normalized sailings alongside stubbornly elevated pricing — is the clearest sign that this year’s rate strength has shifted from a pure supply shock to a demand-and-surcharge story. The Numbers Right Now On the transpacific, Shanghai to New York spot rates climbed 11% week-on-week to $7,902 per 40ft container, while Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 10% to $6,349.