The global EV story and the American EV story have decoupled. The IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026 shows worldwide electric car sales climbing toward roughly a third of all new vehicle sales this year, while the US is described bluntly as falling behind the global boom. The US-specific shock. Last July’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act eliminated penalties for automakers missing fuel efficiency standards, removing a key incentive to sell EVs, and terminated federal tax credits for new and used EV purchases after September 2025.

For operators and fleet planners, the “what replaces oil” question isn’t theoretical anymore — it’s a purchasing decision being made right now, and the transport sector is splitting cleanly by vehicle class rather than converging on one winner. Passenger and light-duty: battery electric has already won Global electric car sales exceeded 20 million in 2025, reaching about 25 percent of total car sales, and the IEA expects that share to climb to roughly 28 percent in 2026.